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EXPERT SYSTEM FOR PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS (EXPEL PROJECT)

Entities participants: Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Empresa Nacional de Residuos Radiactivos (ENRESA), Consejo de Seguridad Nuclear (CSN)
Financied by: Consejo de Seguridad Nuclear (CSN), Empresa Nacional de Residuos Radiactivos (ENRESA)
Duration, from: April 2001  to: April 2004   Budget: 226.581,60 €
Principal Investigator: B. Benito   Number of participants: 13

(Finished)

            

The main objective of this project is the development of a computer code for the probabilistic evaluation of seismic hazard, paying special attention to the particularities of special-importance sites in Spain. The result is the  EXPEL program, conceived as a expert-assisting tool and not just another hazard calculation program. It is composed of several significant modules: a lógic tree module for quantifying epistemic uncertainties related to seismic zonifications and ground-motion models, hereby incorporating different expert opinions in the analysis; a Montecarlo module for  estimating aleatory uncertainty related to seismic parameters: and a deaggregation module for  determining  magnitude-distance(-epsilon) bins that present the highest hazard contribution and are used for defining controlling earthquakes.

Finally, EXPEL includes graphic outputs for visualising results and allows editing data files , which helps the review of the analyses carried out.


             

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