(Finished)
The main objective of this project is the development of a computer code for the probabilistic evaluation of seismic hazard, paying special attention to the particularities of special-importance sites in Spain. The result is the EXPEL program, conceived as a expert-assisting tool and not just another hazard calculation program. It is composed of several significant modules: a lógic tree module for quantifying epistemic uncertainties related to seismic zonifications and ground-motion models, hereby incorporating different expert opinions in the analysis; a Montecarlo module for estimating aleatory uncertainty related to seismic parameters: and a deaggregation module for determining magnitude-distance(-epsilon) bins that present the highest hazard contribution and are used for defining controlling earthquakes.
Finally, EXPEL includes graphic outputs for visualising results and allows editing data files , which helps the review of the analyses carried out.